Tribal Politics

I realize that political parties are a pemenant reality of the American landscape. I am glad that we have developed forums for the large masses of people inhabiting America to state their viewpoints, build concensus, and fight for a common good.

I have just one question. When did politics turn into a religious debate?

I am a religious man. I hold dearly to the values that my parents have tought me and I indeed feel on my own. I will readily admit that the political debates that we have around gay marriage, abortion, sex scandals, and the interaction between church and state move me to strong emotions. It upsets me; however, to be so deftly manipulated.

What are the real issues that the state should be concerned with?

Establishing Justice, insuring domestic Tranquility, providing for the common defense, promotingthe general Welfare, and securing the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.

If a candidate has a platform on healthcare. That's a real issue. If a candidate has a platform on prayer in school, gay marriage, or condoms in the school. Pay attention. That candidate thinks you're a dupe and will fall in line becuase he or she has successfully pushed your hot button.

I won't fall for it this go around. I'm going to vote for the cadidate that talks about what they are really going to do for America. Not the one who talks about what we should believe in America. I'll leave that job up to my conscience and the Sunday School teacher.

As you hear the tribal drum beating this election cycle. Just realize its meant to make you dance.

Immigration Bill Failed

You know, I just can't help but wonder how short sighted our congress is. They just shot down the latest immigration naturalization bill that would allow the current estimated 12 million illegal immigrants an easy path to citizenship. (I actually don't like the "Z Visa" concept which is basically just a glorified work permit, we should give them an easy path to citizenship like our forefathers were given, but you've got to start somewhere.) I know that by posting about immigration I am hereby declaring to the world that I do not march in step with most Republicans on this matter. I don't care.

Here's how economics works. If you run a business that takes raw materials and makes them into a useable goods you must make those improvements for the least amount of money possible. If you don't, you will have your product copied by someone that can and they will. Their substitute product will replace yours and you loose. Now, this process isn't instantaneous but it is pretty quick in our globalized world.

So what do we do in the United States? We discourage immigrants from entering the country by making the naturalization process so difficult that they don't feel as though they can work within the system. So what do they do? They sneak in. The cheap labor comes, but the government doesn't get the increased tax base.

It's not about whether or not its legal. Its about whether or not its possible. And to these immigrant getting in is easy. Getting legal is hard.

Lets build a wall! How stupid are we? If we build walls to keep them out all we are accomplishing is to isolate ourselves. If they want in they will come in. But their government sees our attitude and translates it, "The US thinks they're better than us." We become socially isolated.

In the meanwhile. Our competative advantage in the United States is ebbing. Eventually, China is going to catch up and nothing will be made in the USA because it can all be made in China for cheaper cost and just as good value.

What's more is it is argued that with immigration comes crime. Yeah, but let's look at where that crime is really coming from. Having lived in the Southwest for most of my life, every immigrant that I have met has worked harder for his daily bread than any of his American counterparts. They don't come here to steal and loaf. They come here to work and get ahead.

One last point. The current population trend in the US is to less and less children. This is normal for educated populations. However, if we don't increase our population somehow, how do we expect to be able to grow our economy? Stock market investments?

Continued immigration will save this country's production capabilities. Its time that the nation stopped resenting the culture clash and encouraged immigration as what it is: a replacement working base for a sagging and aging American economy.

I should have seen it coming

Please note that I did talk about the national healthcare issue just a few posts ago. What I should have realized then is that the release of this film would be coordinated with somebody's campaign. I'd be willing to bet that Mr. Moore and Mr. Obama are working together. The buzz from the film and the already thought out healthcare plan will create the stage for the democrats. And every other candidate is already behind.

It will probably set the stage for the Republican candidates as well by hijacking the agenda. "Mr. Giuliani, what do you think about national healthcare?" He'll have to be ready with an answer and just by answering will move the issue even more to the front.

Lest you think that I have a conspiritorial mind. I do not see this as a left wing conspiracy. Only very deft politcal ability. Mr. Obama will be a candidate to watch. And I think that's the way he wants it.

SiCKo

Michael Moore is at it again. He will release a new documentary on our health care system and one can only suppose the underlying agenda: "Get us a nationalized healthcare system!"

If you were alive in the 1980s and 1990s you remember the same mantra being chanted. The solution was to create HMOs or Health Management Orginizations. It was a halfway step to national healthcare. What did this do for healthcare? Did we see a steep decrease in healthcare costs because of them? No, we saw an increase in the bureaucracy. Most HMOs have quietly gone away in the last ten years and the bureaucracy has shifted to the insurance companies. They decide what proceedures are covered and when. Try talking to a doctor about this sometime and see if they like how the current system works. HMOs and national healthcare have the extremely undesirable effect of making the high cost of a medical education unappealing. What do you get for it after all? Prestige?

I have no doubt that Mr. Moore will be screaming for a national healthcare system. What will that mean for the average person? More bureaucracy for less healthcare. Any doctor with any sense will switch to a "private clinic" practice. In other words: pay as you go health care. The kicker there is that in order to have a national healthcare system you'll be having some money removed from your paycheck like the government already does for social security and medicare. Then, if you want to go to a private clinic, you'll pay more money out of your own pocket because the government isn't going to pay you to go to a private clinic.

Robin Hood will be at it again. The rich are paying for the poor to have another entitlement. Except it won't be the rich who bear the real burden, it will be the middle class, because they'll be just well enough off that if they want real health care it will be within their reach and yet because of the national system they'll pay double for it.

I say we regulate the insurers and not the medical system. Limit how much profit they can take off the top. Then, in order to increase revenues, they won't want to limit procedures they'll encourage them (more volume means more revenue after all.) More volume would mean more real competition and our medical system becomes a free market system once again.

I know. Its a pipe dream.

Venezuela in self destruct

Apparently no one in power in Venezuela is a student of history OR economics.
Señor Chavez has swept to power and compares himself to Fidel Castro.
Fidel faught for his power. I don't like what he did either, but here the comparison doesn't fit. Fidel got where he did with guns, not votes.

Señor Chavez is nationalizing much of his country's major industries. Oil is the main one. That is a good short term win, lots of cash still being generated by that Texas tea. Good luck keeping your pumps working when you will never get another outside company to invest one penny in upgrades and exploration. His move has effectively locked in its production at the current levels (they'll actually deminsh as equipment becomes harder and harder for them to repair.)

Señor Chavez has begun land reform. When has that EVER worked? Again, short run politics winning out as the underprivilaged underclass suddenly feels empowered. Oh yea, they also feel entitled. Good luck keeping that entitlement up.

Señor Chavez wants to move towards a national barter system. WHAT???!!! Barter ended in civilized society before we started keeping histories.

That clinches it. Señor Chavez wants to move Venezuela back into the dark ages and beyond.

The list of things he is doing is only missing the persecution of one group of citizens. I think he'll be able to bypass that ugly totalitarian characteristic by putting the country on the oil teat. Just look how well that has worked for Saudi Arabia, they have a HUGE and growing youth population and a very large unemployment rate (around 12 percent.) Both of which can be directly traced to government handouts associated with oil.

Good luck Señor Chavez.

A quick note. I got a comment from a Venezuelan student who has been opposed to Chavez from the beginning. Apparently there are more people opposing him than I originally gave credit to in this post. My prayers go out to these people.

She specifically noted that I had said, "Apparently no one in Venezuela is a student of history OR economics. " Julia, I hope you approve of my edits.

Sarkozy in Africa

Interesting article in the WSJ today opines that with Sarkozy now president of france, a ministry office in France called the "African Cell" is likely to close.

This map from the article gives a good feel for where France still has direct influence. (It doesn't show the countries where they speak french as their official language.)

France won't be pulling their military right out of Africa because of Sarkozy. They will just be less likely to swoop in and reverse negative situations in Africa as they perceive them.

What makes this interesting is that without the direct influence of France on the dark continent these countries are actually going to do better, because France has only ever protected France's self interests. Not the interests of the African nations.

Let's hope it doesn't go the other way and get overrun by warlords.

If you're wondering why I care, my company is opening a copper mine in the DRC. I've been keeping close tabs on African politics for a couple of years now because of the potential direct impact to my company's bottom line.

Solving more world problems

I already suspect that my twin is going to nay-say this post. I think this solution is more realistic than my Saharan Jungle solution. What are the two most politically sensitive topics right now? Iraq and global warming. (Never mind that number two after Iraq on the public conscience is health care, because the media hasn't really caught onto that idea yet.)

Here's how you solve both: The United States initiates a true self sufficiency program with regards to energy. Something on the scale of the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act of 1956. They ended up spending $116 Billion dollars laying out the highways which in todays dollars is equal to about $833 Billion dollars. Not chump change.

The good news is my proposed solution already has the infrastructure almost started.

What we do:

The government MASSIVELY starts subsidizing any alternative energy source that gets us off of foreign oil. Bio-diesel, solar, wind, ethanol, you get the point. The emphasis should be on upgrading existing systems, not putting new systems in place, like a hydrogen economy would need.

How would they subsidize it? The subsidies would pay for solar and wind installations costs over and above what it would cost for them to install petroleum consuming resourses. Including, half of the cost of solar panels that the typical homeowner could install on his home to power up. Make it a no brainer to take your house off of the electrical grid. More specifically, a no painer.

The political results would be interesting and rapid:

First, we would lose almost all interest in what happens in the Middle East. The only thing we would have left to defend there is our interest in Israel. (Which I'm afraid would also deminish in proportion to our dependancy on the oil reserves of their neighbors.)

Second, oil countries would have to change their welfare state structure because they wouldn't be getting so much of their funding directly from the gas pumps of America.

Third, America would once again be creating resourses rather than consuming them. No one ever built strength by only consuming. You must CREATE resourses. Mine them, grow them, generate them, whatever. Wealth does not ever flow away from resources. It flows to them.

Yes, this is a kind of econmic warfare, but if we don't do it now, we aren't going to be left with the choice. Eventually the warfare will be even more real than Iraq. It will involve the entire region and could spread to other oil producing states.

The lines are now open for your critisisms.

And now for something totally different:
I don't know if I can keep watching American Idol now that Lakisha is gone.

Painful Realization Islamo-fascism

There has been a lot of talk and its seems to be growing, about the term Islamo-fascism. If we are truly dealing with a fascistic mentality in Iraq, or even throughout the Middle-East, we are faced with a sobering reality.

We got in too soon.

Put this into historical perspective. Had England or America invaded Germany, Italy, or Japan too soon, it would have been politically unpalitable for them to conquer those countries all together. We would have been left rebuilding a resentful country. Unrepentant because after all, they would have done nothing wrong.

Of the three groups just named the mentality to the Jihadist Islamics most closely resembles the Japanese. And when we finally removed the Japanese from Iwo Jima and Okinawa we had to literally destroy the entire defending army. Of the 22,000 original Japanese combatants on Iwo Jima only 216 were taken prisoner. On Okinawa, 66,000 Japanese soldiers died or were missing with 140,000 civilians killed.

Why were the japanese so willing to fight to the death for their political agenda?

Beliefs and homeland.

For most Japanese, the emperor was decended from the Gods. They fought for the Gods. Then, as the invaders came closer to the homeland, they fought mainly to make them pay a higher price to stop the invaders from ever invading the mainland.

Applying this to what we face in Iraq is not a straight comparison. There are many middle eastern countries. There are even multiple religions in the middle east. It is simply the concept of the radicalized middle east that is the most sobering. Iraq hadn't committed enough attrocities for us to step in and catagorically convince the world and most importantantly the Iraqis and Iraq's neighbors, that the attrocities had to be stopped.

But at the base the comparison is stark. We are attacking their beliefs and we are in their homeland.

What has the reaction become? We are the perceived oppressors. The perceived enemy. This is a battle that must be won philosophically and there are no weapons I know of that can be used philosophically right now. (I can just see a whole fleet of Jehovah's Witnesses sent over to convert Iraq.)

We need to get out but if we leave now, when it implodes, it will be our fault.

If we stay we remain the focal point.

I think we should turn it over to a Middle Easter coalition of countries with Iraq trying to stick to the constitution we gave them. I realize this is a cut and run stategy; but, put into historical perspective, we're gonna get killed no matter what we do. And unlike Germany or Japan, when we went in this time we didn't level the country after years of prolonged war. The people don't need us to rebuild. They need us to get out and turn it over to them. I think that a middle eastern coalition might soften the blow somewhat.

No easy answer here.

White and Nerdy

I read a WSJ article today about the Czech Republic adopting the flat tax. Interested that there are still folks out there talking about the flat tax I decided to go to wikipedia and see what the font of all knowledge had to say about the flat tax. I assumed (incorrectly) that it would be all about Steve Forbes' presidential bid in 1996.

In reading the article I discovered that the Czech Republic was still listed as one of the countries that had only proposed to switch to the flat tax.

I got an itch.

I had to fix it.

And so, for the first time in my life I added my two bits to the font of knowledge. It really wasn't my two bits, but if I didn't fix it, who was going to?

And now to my point. If you haven't heard the song "White and Nerdy" by Weird Al Yankovic one of the lines describing what makes the singer white and nerdy is that he edits wikipedia. Holy Cow! I'm White and Nerdy.

I have included the lyrics in this post and bolded the lyrics that apply to me, words in parenthesis are my commentary:

White & Nerdy by Al Yankovic

They see me mowin’ My front lawn
I know they’re all thinking I’m so white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
Can’t you see I’m white and nerdy?
Look at me, I’m white and nerdy

I wanna roll with The gangstas
But so far they all think I’m too white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
I’m just too white and nerdy.
Really really white and nerdy.

First in my class here at MIT
Got skills, I’m a champion at D&D (actually I preferred other RPGs)
MC Escher - that’s my favorite MC
Keep your 40, I’ll just have an Earl Grey tea
My rims never spin, to the contrary
You’ll find that they’re quite stationary
All of my action figures are cherry
Steven Hawking’s in my library
My MySpace page is all totally pimped out
Got people beggin’ for my top eight spaces
Yo, I know pi to a thousand places
Ain’t got no grills but I still wear braces
I order all of my sandwiches with mayonnaise
I’m a whiz at Minesweeper - I could play for days
Once you see my sweet moves you’re gonna stay amazed
My fingers’ movin’ so fast I’ll set the place ablaze
There’s no killer app I haven’t run
At Pascal, well I’m number one
Do vector calculus just for fun
I ain’t got a gat but I got a soldering gun
Happy Days is my favorite theme song
I could sure kick your butt in a game of ping pong
I’ll ace any trivia quiz you bring on
I’m fluent in JavaScript as well as Klingon

They see me roll on My Segway
I know in my heart they think I’m white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
Can’t you see I’m white and nerdy
Look at me, I’m white and nerdy
I’d like to roll with The gangstas
Although it’s apparent I’m too white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
I’m just too white and nerdy
How’d I get so white and nerdy

I’ve been browsin’, inspectin’
X-Men comics, you know I collect ‘em (Not any more)
The pens in my pocket, I must protect ‘em
My ergonomic keyboard never leaves me bored
Shopping online for deals on some writable media
I edit Wikipedia
I memorized Holy Grail really well
I can recite it right now and have you ROTFLOL
I got a business doing websites
When my friends need some code, who do they call?
I do HTML for ‘em all
Even made a homepage for my dog
Yo, I got myself a fanny pack
They were havin’ a sale down at The Gap
Spend my nights with a roll of bubble wrap
Pop, pop, hope no one sees me
Gettin’ freaky
I’m nerdy in the extreme
And whiter than sour cream (never could get a tan)
I was in AV Club and Glee Club and even the Chess Team
Only question I Ever thought was hard
Was do I like Kirk Or do I like Picard
Spend every weekend at the Renaissance Fair
Got my name on my underwear

They see me strollin’
They laughin’
And rollin’ their eyes ‘cause I’m so white and nerdy
Just because I’m white and nerdy
Just because I’m white and nerdy
All because I’m white and nerdy
Holy cow, I’m white and nerdy
I wanna bowl with The gangstas
But, oh well, it’s obvious I’m white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
Think I’m just too white and nerdy
I’m just too white and nerdy
Look at me, I’m white and nerdy

I'm NOT obsessed with Global Warming I Swear

Okay, I realize that this is my third post about global warming, but I just can't help it. The supreme court has rendered an opionion about global warming that goes one step further to legitimitize the weak science behind the concept.

Today, the court ruled that the EPA cannot ignore car and truck emissions in the Clean Air Act. Specifically, Justice Stephens said in the majority opinion, "A well-documented rise in global temperatures has coincided with a significant increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere."

So, I guess the next logical step is what? We can't stop the vehicles on today's roads stop spitting out carbon dioxide. In fact the only fuel that doesn't produce CO2 is Hydrogen. (Which is not particularly easy to use as fuels go.)

More significantly, the supreme court has just made global warming official in the United States.

I guess my cap and trade idea really could make me rich if every schlub had to pay a CO2 tax at the pump to be used in carbon offsets.

I better get busy.

I'm a Genius

So, on NPR last Friday they talked about Carbon Dioxide cap and trade schemes. It got me thinking about an idea that I have had for a long time and I've decided to fling it to the blogging world for the voluminous feedback that I always recieve.

You see, we are releasing so much carbon dioxide into the world by burning everything we can lay our hands on that of course global warming is all our fault. The earth has a fever and is going to die.

So here is my solution. You set up a huge pipe line running straight out of the ocean, through a desalinization plant, and into the Sahara. You begin growing trees on the most remote part of the desert so that you can purchase millions of acres on the cheap. Then you start selling "carbon credits" to the industrial countries for all of your new grown jungle. Heck to get the project running you could presale the credits to beat future carbon emission limitations. They get to keep burning their fossil fuels. You get to terraform a useless chunk of the world into a huge carbon sink that undoubtedly would generate piles of tourist cash. The Al Gore's of the world name you the hero of the planet. They'll probably name the new river that forms in the desert after you.

In theory once the terraformed area is large enough and wet enough, it would become a self sustaining habitat.

Genius.

Please send your save the planet checks to:

Presidential Campaigns

So I just learned yesterday why so many presidential hopefuls toss their hats into the ring so early. You see, to become president requires boat loads of money. The first one asking for the money has a couple of advantages. 1. There is less competition for the money, because there are less options. 2. If you can earn enough early enough you get front runner buzz. Which in turn will generate more money for you. It seems like a smart stategy. This campaign will likely be the most expensive presidential election ever costing over $1 billion, just for the CHANCE to hold the reigns.

I hate to say it but I feel more and more like a low born Plebian and unless you have all of the right credentials, parents, and money you will not be considered a patrician.

Nevertheless, while I don't have money to give to candidates (except for telling congress to give $3 dollars to the official candidates when I file my taxes) I still have seen enough of the candidates to settle on my choice.

If you don't know much about Mitt Romney I recommend you follow my link and spend five minutes getting aquainted. Right credentials, right parents, a SUCCESSFUL business man (which in my mind says a LOT), and has a firm moral compass. Definitely the best of this years patricians.

I'd love to hear anybody else's better suggestion out of the declared candidates.

Running the numbers and the experiment

Because some people don't understand how an earth warming cycle looks I have included a highly technical schematic as part of my blog today.

On the top line of the drawing we are looking at a warming and cooling trend on the earth that has a period of around 20,000 years. While my drawing isn't based on specific data this is pretty much what it looks like. You can find the real 12,000 year span on Wikipedia.

The second line is a magnification of one 10,000 year section through which time we cycle down to a cool era and are heading up. This is what we call an ice age. Not a "little ice age." A full blown ice age.

The third line represents a 2,500 year time span and when you get this close to the data it gets much harder to figure out what is going on.

I then drew a one hundred year stretch with a very steep upward trend. The real data shows a very steep upward trend, changing higher upwards than anyone has ever seen since the last ice age. The problem is we can't reconstruct the data going any further back. So it leaves people guessing what is going to happen. People who are convinced that humans are the cause for this trend jump up and down swearing that the curve will go up forever, swamping all of the the world's low lands in the process.

My undergraduate is in Geology and a student once asked the professor if he believed that there was global warming and if we were causing it. He pointed to the same data I layed out and then sidestepped the issue by pointing out that whether or not you agree on the cause, man is running a global science experiment. We are converting all of our fossil fuels into Carbon dioxide, heat, water, and a few other nasties. So, whether or not you agree that man is the cause, the data shows a phenominal uptick in the OVERALL global temperature.

Being a geologist and used to thinking in terms of Millions...and Billions of years, I personally think that even if we humans are supplying our inputs, our impact or even a major change in our behavior will not change what the earth has done forever. And that is be a huge chemistry lab where oxygen, carbon dioxide, and water are the main chemical reactants.

Anyone that claims catagorically that man is the main cause for global warming has left the realm of science and entered the realm of politics. A realm that in order to look like a hero, you've got to create the problem you are going to solve first.

Political Core Beliefs

I have recently been joined at work by a VERY liberal colleague. Lately, she has given me more reason to be politically minded than I would care to admit.

I just found out what makes her gears tick. Now, admittedly, this is a right wing opinion. But its good for a laugh.

I imagine that a similar list could be made for us right wing nuts.

I'm open for suggestions on what makes you a right wing nut. Something like:

1. You oppose abortion but you believe in capital punishment

2. You believe that homosexuality is a CHOICE (as opposed to genetic) but you believe that diabetes "runs in the family." (Because the family never runs.)

Any others?